[SMM Analysis] Refined Tin Production Fell by 4.41% in December, Production May Continue to Decline as Chinese New Year Approaches

Published: Dec 31, 2024 11:33

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[SMM Analysis: Refined Tin Production Fell by 4.41% in December, Production May Continue to Decline as Chinese New Year Approaches]: According to data processed by SMM based on market communication, China's refined tin production in December 2024 decreased by 4.41% compared to the previous month, but the cumulative YoY growth was a significant 8.91%. Due to the tightening supply of tin ores and scrap, the overall output of tin ingots showed a downward trend during the month.......

SMM December 31 News: According to data compiled by SMM through market exchanges, in December 2024, China's refined tin production decreased by 4.41% compared to the previous month but showed a significant YoY increase of 8.91%. Due to the tightening supply of tin ore and scrap, the overall output of tin ingots declined during the month.

In the Yunnan region, the volume of tin ore imported from Myanmar remained at a low level, putting significant pressure on local raw material supplies. Most smelting enterprises chose to maintain the status quo or slightly reduce production scales. If Myanmar's tin ore production ban policy remains unchanged, we expect the output of smelting enterprises in Yunnan to continue declining. Additionally, the recent continuous decline in tin concentrate TC has fallen below the cost line for some smelting enterprises, leading some to plan production halts before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, in Jiangxi, despite seasonal factors affecting scrap supply in November, smelting enterprises achieved a slight increase in production due to relatively sufficient raw material supplies. However, this growth trend is unlikely to sustain, and in December, most smelting enterprises in Jiangxi also experienced a decline in production. In Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, smelting activities remained relatively stable. However, in Anhui and other regions, increasing difficulties in raw material procurement have already impacted smelting enterprises' production, and maintaining future production levels is expected to face significant challenges.

Considering the above factors, we predict that in January, national tin ingot production may continue to decline. Given the significant uncertainties surrounding the import situation of tin ore from Wa State in Myanmar and the worsening raw material supply issues for smelters, all market participants need to remain highly vigilant and closely monitor the latest developments in the raw material market to respond promptly to potential market fluctuations.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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